COVER STORY

Baby Boom 
& 
Budget Bust 

A chance combination of prosperity, ticking biological clocks and the search for family values and intimacy is keeping Brazilian maternities, baby sitters and child product manufacturers very busy these days. With inflation unbelievably low (by Brazilian standards), many couples are finally considering the big jump to baby land. Simply put, it's boom time for babies. But there many other people crying and is not from teething. 

Rodolfo Espinoza 

They are being called the children of Real. They are the boys and girls born in the last few years who are reaping the fruits of the Real, the new currency and economic plan implemented July 1994. More specifically, children of Real are those babies who arguably owe their existence to the Real Plan, since their parents decided to have them only because of the new perspectives and opportunities presented by the Real. And it seems that there are plenty of these children of Real. So much so that there is talk of a new baby boom in the country 

Newborn Antônio Franco is a legitimate representative of this generation. He is the son of Cristiana and Gustavo Franco, one of the Real's fathers and the Central Bank's Director for International Affairs. If not diplomatically, the old Franco has colorfully and irreverently explained the relationship between the economy and the current baby boom: "I have no doubt that inflation was one of the causes of impotency in Brazilian homes. It's good to know that the Real has induced a national hard-on." He makes a strong case. For decades, Brazilians, living with a monthly inflation rate of around 50 percent, couldn't seriously budget for a year in advance much less for nearly two decades that it takes to raise a child. 

There is no lack of signs that it's boom time for middle-class newborns. The evidence can be seen in the maternity wards for the well-to-do in Rio, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte (capital of Minas Gerais) where there was an average 20 percent increase in births since July 1994. Hospital São Luiz in São Paulo is spending $1.2 million on new facilities to meet the demand. The signs are evident throughout the industry that caters to babies. Earnings in the sector have increased a whopping 70 percent in the last 2.5 years generating $1 billion per year. 

There is an explosion of shops selling to the newborn set. Opened in São Paulo at the end of 1995, a 51-store mall specializing in products for children, Kids -- a $10-million investment -- is already recording $1 million a month in sales. Just one year ago, its creators were dreaming of making $2.5 million a year. The Market Place, another shopping mall with children in mind, has innovatively provided shopping carts for children in the supermarket so the tots can do their own shopping. 

According to SBEP, a company that specializes in organizing fairs for the baby industry, the number of shops selling baby stuff has skyrocketed from 7,000 in mid 1994 to 20,000 today. The XI Expo Bebê e Gestante, a fair with products for babies and pregnant women that took place last October in São Paulo, featured more than 200 stands representing companies from all over the world. 

Times are so promising that Yankee companies Gracco and Century , two of the world's biggest names in baby car seats and strollers, have already made known their plans to invest in Brazil in 1997. They will be joining multinationals such as Johnson & Johnson -- which has announced $70 million in fresh investment to develop new children's products -- Kimberly Clark/Kenko, and American Procter & Gamble, which is also committing $70 million to produce more diapers. They are working under the assumption -- for lack of an official number -- that the Real has generated eight million children so far. 

In an interview with weekly magazine Isto É, Ruy Marco Antônio, the director superintendent of Hospital e Maternidade São Paulo, argued: "The middle class worries too much about consumption. They always want to know how much they are going to spend to raise a child. Inflation scared them. Now they can budget their expenses" 

Another service in high demand is in vitro fertilization. Do to its high expense -- typically from $3,000 to 7,000 -- artificial insemination is restricted to the upper middle class and wealthy. Celeste and Joshua, the newborn twins of Assíria Seixas Lemos and Édson Arantes do Nascimento (Pelé), are merely the most famous of a crop of babies born through this method. Pelé, the legendary soccer player who is now Brazil's Sports Minister, opted for this method after a failed operation to reverse a vasectomy 17 years ago. The clinics that specialize in this kind of treatment have seen a measurable growth since the introduction of Real. Close to 2,000 couples tried to artificially conceive a child in Brazil in 1995. In São Paulo, for example, the Clínica Roger Abdelmassih expects to end the year with 700 in vitro fertilization trials up from 450 just two years ago. 

All of this happens in a country where the fecundity rate has been falling consistently since 1960, when there was an average of 6.28 children for every child-bearing-aged woman.. According to IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística -- Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics), in 1970 this number had fallen to 5.76, in 1980 to 4.35, and all the way to 2.8 in 1994, the last year for which the IBGE has data. Due to this trend, population growth has fallen from a yearly average of 2.48 percent between 1971 and 1980 to 1.93 percent during the period of 1980 to 1991. 

The middle-class baby boom is also occurring against the backdrop of a series of tragedies involving newborn babies in October and November. In a 50-day span, at least 92 babies died in public maternity wards throughout the country, all due to overcrowding and lack of proper care and hygiene in the hospitals. Forty nine babies died at Maternidade Escola Assis Chateaubriand in Fortaleza (state of Ceará) in the first two weeks of November. There were 32 other cases in Boa Vista (capital of Roraima) and 11 in Niterói (Rio de Janeiro). 

One third of the 150 million-strong Brazilian population is 14 years old or younger. Some 15 million of these children belong to the middle class. They represent a market of $50 billion or 10 percent of the Brazilian GNP. And this is before any consideration of their leverage in buying almost everything else in the house, including cars (minivans have been invading the Brazilian market as in the US), computers (adults are generally too dumb to know which machine to buy and 26 percent of all home computers are bought due to the insistence of a child), and even houses. According to industry sources, Brazilian children spend $1 billion a year on cookies and $4.8 billion on soft drinks. 

"Everything a child wants, he gets," said ad agency McCann Erickson's director Helena Quadrado in an interview with weekly newsmagazine Veja. "No one refuses anything to their children." In a recent study, McCann Erickson found that 63 percent of São Paulo city's middle-class 13-years-old or younger have a TV set in their own bedroom. The research has also revealed that allowances, as a fixed amount of money given to the child every month, are on their way out (less than half of the children receive them) while an open budget and more freedom to spend the money have become the norm among these children. 

This new independent breed of children, who had to learn to fend for themselves while both parents often had to work to make ends meet, doesn't seem particularly greedy or undisciplined. Books for children have both mirrored this new reality and helped empower children to question authority, doing away with the absolute power and infallibility of the adult. Among the current book heroes there are Ruth Rocha's Marcelo Marmelo, Martelo, the saga of a little boy who has his own ideas and even decides to create a new language, and Ziraldo's O Menino Maluquinho, the crazy little boy who used to get an F in behavior, but was very happy anyway. 

At the same time, a reevaluation of the role of parents and in particular that of mothers, is occurring. As in the US, many Brazilian women who had prosperous careers are redirecting their energies and often reassuming their posts as homemakers, but no longer as the celebrated queens of the household of past generations. The personal-success-at-any-cost attitude has given way to a desire to achieve personal and affective realization. And many women in their 30s are listening to their biological clocks ticking and have decided that it's the time to start or expand the family. 

While maternity leave in Brazil lasts four months, not the one month or less that's the norm in the US, many women think this is not enough time to bond with their newborn. Some celebrities have adhered to the back-to-home concept in recent months giving the idea their seal of approval. Among them is actress Patrícia Travassos, 44, who has given up a successful career on TV and the stage to dedicate herself to her home and her 7 year old son Nicolau. 

While enjoying herself at her apartment in Ipanema, Rio de Janeiro, she told Isto É about the different standards applied to men and women: "If a man is late to work because he went to take his son to the dentist, he is considered a good father. When this happens to a woman, we are not considered good professionals because we are bringing our domestic problems to work." 

For some 9.6 million women who are single parents, the task of juggling outside and home work can be formidable. According to IBGE, one in every four families in Brazil are managed by a woman, often without any financial or other help from the former husband. It's estimated that by the year 2000, 40 percent of all jobs will be held by women in Brazil. This doesn't mean, however, that women will get new respectability in the work place. Right now, the average salary for a woman is 24 percent lower than that for a man. 

Growth Pains 
and Rewards 

The same Real that has saved Brazilians from the mandibles of apparently chronic inflation has also caused some conflicting feelings, ranging from an initial shopping euphoria to a lingering despair for those who lost their jobs after the government put on the brakes. In the first drive, the taming of inflation made people feel very powerful and brought them in droves to the stores in a festival of consumerism. Government intervened through a double dose of high-interest rates and short period payments for sales on credit. 

As a result of these measures, there was a retraction in the economy and unemployment became rampant. Jobless figures reached a peak of 16.2 percent in the Greater São Paulo area in June and have been falling since, but rate is still in double digits. An optimist by profession, Finance Minister Pedro Malan declared recently: "No one can deny that the country has become a better place. Economic stabilization is a marathon with barriers. We have already passed several of them and certainly we will have new one to overcome. But we have the lowest inflation since 1957 and perfectly sustainable growth rates." 

Experts are predicting a 4 percent growth rate in the Gross Domestic Product for 1996. There are fears that an expansion larger than this might bring inflation back. The rate, however, seems good enough to keep the economy humming along, with enough production and sales not to add to the hordes of unemployed. Economists are just hopeful they will not have to endure other crises such as the one that followed the Mexican debacle of 1995, when Brazil lost $10 billion from its reserves, money already recouped by now. Another serious setback was caused by the insolvency of Econômico and Nacional, both among the five largest Brazilian banks. A much-feared chain reaction that would hit other financial institutions hasn't materialized and the economy seems to be recuperating fast from the shock. 

There are, however, some business practices that are causing the economic policy makers to worry. One of them is the credit that supermarkets are extending their clients for buying food staples. José Roberto Mendonça de Barros, the Finance Ministry's secretary of Economic Policy, has expressed his discontent in face of the seemingly dangerous trend. "The length of credit has increased too fast and these sales are not backed up by durable goods," says Mendonça de Barros. "We need to call these folks for a little chat." 

Last year in São Paulo, two million people were on the black list of bad debtors, but this number has since been cut in half. The economy is growing again, and while some sectors continue to hurt, other industries, including those that manufacture electronics and home appliances are booming. From January to September, Brazilians bought 6.4 million TV sets, 4 million irons, 2.8 million refrigerators and 2 million video players. While 76 percent of the houses had a TV set in 1993 this number had increased to 81 percent by the end of 1995. The number of households with refrigerators grew from 72 percent to 75 percent, while 27 percent of Brazilians now have a washing machine (compared to 24 percent two years ago) and 15 percent have a freezer (compared to 12 percent before the Real). 

Since the introduction of the Real, income has increased an average of 30 percent. The poor got the bigger benefits. Those workers who were making around $60 had their income doubled. Capital goods and auto parts -- national manufacturers are feeling the squeeze from foreign companies -- are two of the sectors that are still limping. Despite generalized complaints from the auto industry, that sector increased its production by 10 percent in 1996 when compared to 1995 and automakers are committed to investing $9 billion in three years to expand their factories. 

Brazilians are also eating better since the advent of the Real. Consumption of products like beef, chicken and canned food has increased almost 5 percent in comparison to 1995. Thanks to the new currency, 11 million people were upgraded from poor to lower middle class, producing an increase in sales of non-essential products such as soft drinks, linens, and beach paraphernalia. A study from IPEA (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada -- Institute for Applied Economic Research) has shown that since the end of 1994, the number of people under of the poverty line fell from 16 million to 11 million. 

As for inflation the reality has been rosier than the predictions. For 1997, it's expected that inflation will not surpass 8 percent for the year. In response to the market, the federal government is again and very cautiously relaxing credit through the lowering of interest rates and the lengthening of time for financing. A car, for example, can be bought over 48 months, much more feasible than the less than one year plans of the recent past. As extra protection, Brazil has $58.7 billion in reserve for eventual foreign debts. Only Japan, Germany and the US have bigger reserves. 

Different from the IBGE, which uses the salaries of all the family members to rank the prosperity of the people, , the research company Marplan groups Brazilians into five different categories (A to E), according to a basket of services and goods that people receive. The classification, widely used for marketeers, shows that Brazilians from the lowest classes (D and E) measured only 33 percent in 1995. A similar study in 1986 showed that 42 percent of the population belonged to those classes. Ten years ago the C group was 32 percent and it has increased to 38 percent. The most privileged, the A and B layers have also grown from 25 percent to 29 percent during the same period. 

Changes in consumer habits have forced DIEESE (Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Sociais - Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies), a research institute maintained by workers' unions, to eliminate some items and include others on the list it uses to compute the cost of living index. Products like vinyl records and black and white TV sets have disappeared from their inquiries while new products like disposable diapers and yogurt have been added or were given more weight. 

Despite all the improvements and better distribution of wealth, Brazil continues to be a land of huge contrasts between the extremes of poverty and wealth. While the poorest 70 percent take 26 percent of the country's income the richest 10 percent take 47 percent of all the wealth. Services continue to be a problem, too. Forty percent of the houses are not served by public sewers, 24 percent have no tap water, 28 percent don't get their trash picked up and 8 percent still don't have electricity at home. All this without even mentioning telephones. Before the Real, only 19 percent of residences had a phone. Today a mere 22 percent have one. 

Underground Market 

Unemployment figures have been scary. According to DIEESE (Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Sociais -- Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies) there were 1.32 million unemployed in São Paulo in August. That's 15 percent of that city's workforce. Such dire numbers are the worse in memory except for August 1992, when the recession provoked by the Plano Collor (the economic plan named for impeached President Fernando Collor de Mello) was at its peak. 

Even though this perception of the worst of times might also be due do the fact that measurement is a little more precise nowadays, the situation would be much worse if Brazilians weren't so malleable and inventive. They have been doing all kinds of jobs and tricks to survive. A large contingent of them has entered the so-called informal market. From the 70-million strong Brazilian work force at least 35 million get their main source of income or part of it through work on the side. 

Such a huge informal economy can only be matched by countries of the so-called Fifth World, like Somalia and Bangladesh. These clandestine business people, who have no health insurance and end up using the overcrowded public health system, are responsible for a $220 billion economy, or close to 35 percent of Brazil's official GDP (Gross Domestic Product). 

In the first official effort ever to find out how widespread the under-the-table economy is, IBGE studied it in Rio de Janeiro and found that there are 444,420 informal outfits functioning without permits in that city. Guaranteeing work for 560,000 people, these outlaw activities generate $6 billion a year, an amount that not even Shell of Brazil can match. This amount represents 18 percent of Rio's GDP. Surprisingly the average monthly income of an informal business is $1,100, 11 times the minimum wage. That means that a street peddler in Rio brings home five times more money than a teacher from a public school, and four times more than a bank cashier. 

Quite curiously, such informality in some cases has been a blessing in disguise. Many people who go underground after they are fired find out that they wouldn't take their old job back if it was offered to them. There are stories of people graduated from college who are doing much better selling in the streets without a permit than they were before in their underpaid white-collar jobs. 

Isto É recently told the story of Frederico Ladeira, 36, a high-school teacher who instead of taking home a $400 monthly salary, is now making 2,000 selling chocolate candy that he manufactures at home and sells without any permit or receipts. All under the table. "Professional fulfillment doesn't fill the stomach," he told the magazine. "I wanted to do something to make money." 

For 22 years now, the number of jobs in Brazil has been shrinking -- as in the rest of the industrialized world for that matter. While the population was increasing at a rate of around 2 percent a year and the industry grew 2.9 percent between 1974 and 1983, the number of jobs expanded a miserly 0.15 percent. Since 1983, industry growth fell to 1.9 percent and the job market started showing a negative result: an average of minus 1.35 percent a year. 

The Brazilian bureaucracy is in part responsible for the size of the informal economy, which consists not only of street vendors and people hawking their goods at stop lights. Many people work for companies that never register them, avoiding the costs of official hiring, which would more than double the cost of an employee. There are close to 20 fees that have to be paid by the employer, including fees for social security, unemployment fund, and education-salary. 

The outlaw workers are starting to organize themselves. Throughout the country there are already 11 unions for workers in the informal market. "We are paying close attention to the situation," says Vicente Paulo da Silva, Vicentinho, the president of CUT (Central Única dos Trabalhadores -- Workers' United Central). "We recommend that those people who are in the informality organize themselves." CUT is planning a national conference for the first semester of 1997 to deal exclusively with the theme. São Paulo's Informal Economy Workers' Union has close to 3,000 members. At least 50 people everyday come to their office to inquire about starting their own business while ditching all the government bureaucracy and fees. 

Baby Blues 

Brazilians not only make less than their neighbors to the north, they have to pay much more for a similar baby product. The discrepancy occurs in almost every other sector of the economy. 

Brazil .....US 

Baby bathtub ...........173 ......60 
Stroller .....................256 ....100 
Car seat ...................191...... 80 
High chair .................100 .....30 
Rocking chair ............180 .....80 
Play pen ....................280..... 80 
Feeding bottle ...............6 .......6