Lula does not look like a man about to assume power. 
He looks as laid back as though he were about to become
manager of a boys’ under-10s football team rather than
president of one of the world’s largest countries.

John Fitzpatrick

Brazil's President-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is obviously one of those people for whom the journey and not the arrival matters—and this does not augur well for the country. Since he topped the polls on October 27, he has been on a honeymoon, which he is enjoying so much that he wants to extend it and postpone assuming office on January 1^st until January 6. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso has said several times that he does not want to extend his term of office beyond the mandate granted by the electorate.

However, the PT team thinks that January 1^st is not a good day on which to hold the official ceremony because it is a holiday and could pose traveling problems and conflict with the New Year's festivities. It is impossible to believe that these could be serious reasons. Foreign diplomats in Brasília are at a loss to explain to their governments that they cannot yet make arrangements for VIPs to attend the swearing-in ceremony because they do not know when it will take place.

Why should Lula think he is different from the previous president? Cardoso assumed office on January 1^st on two occasions without any fuss. As to upsetting holiday festivities, I remember, on the second occasion, being the only person who wanted to watch the ceremony on television. My Brazilian relatives preferred to finish their cafezinhos at the end of New Year’s Day lunch, knowing that their president had been duly sworn into office, according to the constitution.

Lula has dismissed the fuss surrounding this affair as a “storm in a teacup” and has continued to bask in the people’s favor, going on walkabouts, kissing babies and playing football with his grandchildren in the grounds of his future Brasília home. Lula does not look like a man about to assume power. He is still on a high and looks more relaxed these days than Cardoso who, instead of winding down after eight tough years, is being tested to the bitter end. Lula looks as laid back as though he were about to become manager of a boys’ under-10s football team rather than president of one of the world’s largest countries.

Anyone who knows Brazil is aware of the appalling lack of organization, but this casual approach to assuming the highest office in the land is incredible—to the outsider, that is. For Brazilians it is different. Brazilian organizations are not embarrassed if things are altered at the last minute. As for deadlines, forget them. Everything will sort itself out in time.

I remember that about 10 years ago I went to Paris to interview a top executive of a big state-controlled French company called Thomson CF (now called Thales), which, at the time, was having its operating results dragged down by a big equity stake it had been forced to assume in the troubled state-controlled Credit Lyonnais bank. On the day, before my planned interview, the bank had been due to issue its quarterly results but, at the last minute, failed to do so and postponed publication. This event became the top international financial story and the main French news story. It was prominently featured on the front-page of the Financial Times on the day of my interview, thereby adding a little spice (I hope) to my final story.

Events like this happen all the time here and no one is bothered. There may be a few lines in the financial section of a newspaper but that is as far as it goes. During Cardoso's first term, the privatization process was dogged by postponements, delays and in the case of the big mining company, CVRD (Companhia Vale do Rio Doce), the actual auction was stopped in the middle of bidding. The foreign onlookers were appalled but the Brazilians were unflummoxed.

I imagine many Brazilians who read this will think I am making a fuss about nothing or a “tempestade em copo d’água” as Lula would say. I probably sound like a nervy foreigner who should calm down and let things develop naturally. After all, what difference does it make if Lula becomes president on January 1^st or 6? I can accept this reasoning because I live here and know how things work but there is a great big world out there which has been examining Brazil through a microscope for the last two to three years and has a different attitude.

This world is made up of foreign investors wondering whether to apply their money in Brazil or pull it out, the International Monetary Fund, which has stepped to the rescue three times during Cardoso's terms of office and the United States administration, which is keen on setting up a free trade zone for the Americas. These outsiders have already given Brazil a great deal of the benefit of the doubt. Against their real feelings, they have been tolerant and supportive. However, Brazil needs to show that it appreciates this help and, at least, try and understand how the outsiders feel. Whether Brazilians like it or not, the views of these foreigners are important because Brazil cannot go it alone. These observers are still nervous about Lula taking over and wonder if he really has become the more moderate candidate we saw during the election campaign.

Equally importantly is Lula’s non-existent track record as an administrator. Perhaps he will turn out to be great at delegating and, given a good team of ministers and administrators, do a good job. However, the world will not cross its fingers and take him on trust. Lula should start showing some responsibility and get ready to start his new job on January 1^st—whether it is a holiday or not.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações—www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

© John Fitzpatrick 2002

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil, at www.infobrazil.com 

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