Looking for a Miracle

If Cardoso loses faith in Serra then he may turn to Lula
just as the left-wing supported Jacques Chirac in the
French elections against Jean Marie le Pen.

John Fitzpatrick

On Thursday, July 25, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso switched on a massive air surveillance system covering the entire Amazon region—two-thirds of Brazilian territory and an area larger than western Europe. The cost of the so-called SIVAM project is estimated at US$ 1.4 billion. Most of us residents would rather have a few more policemen on the streets protecting us from criminals in tee-shirts and jeans but, at least, we can sleep securely at night knowing that no sneak attack by the air forces of Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Surinam or French Guiana will go undetected. What a pity though for the government presidential candidate, José Serra, that the President could not switch on a system which would boost his chances and, at the same time, shelter Brazil from the turbulence on the international financial markets which is hammering the economy.

While Serra from the government party PSDB (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira—Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy) remains in the doldrums in opinion polls with no sign of a pick up in his campaign, Ciro Gomes (PPS - Partido Popular Socialista—Popular Socialist Party) is settling in as runner up behind Lula (PT - Partido dos Trabalhadores—Workers Party), who is still in a comfortable leading position.

There are increasing signs that the fourth contender, Anthony Garotinho (PSB - Partido Socialista Brasileiro—Brazilian Socialist Party), may withdraw as his popularity slumps and campaign funds dry up. It looks as though we are heading for a first round three-horse race which could lead to a Gomes-Lula second round instead of the Serra-Lula round we all expected. Serra has shaken up his communications team and is betting a lot on the start of television propaganda in August when he will have the lion’s share of free airtime, thanks to his alliance with the PMDB (Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro—Brazilian Democratic Movement Party). Whether this will be enough to rescue him is the big question.

Many members of his camp are frustrated that Cardoso has not been more active in promoting his would-be successor. However, Cardoso is still the head of state and cannot be seen to be too partisan at this stage. At the same time, why should Cardoso attach himself to a sinking ship even though the captain is from his own party? If Cardoso loses faith in Serra then he may turn to Lula just as the left-wing supported Jacques Chirac in the French elections against Jean Marie le Pen. He has already said that he would support Lula rather than Gomes, a Northeasterner and former PSDB member, who was briefly finance minister after Cardoso stood down to campaign for his first term as president.

The PT candidate could benefit enormously from Gomes’ rise as, despite Gomes’ growing popularity, there is enormous hostility to him in many business and media circles. Olavo Setúbal, president of Itaú—Brazil’s second-largest private bank only behind Bradesco—was quoted as telling Gomes that he did not fear Lula. “If elected, Lula will do nothing. I am scared of you,” the Estado de S. Paulo reported him as saying. The press is also angry at what it sees as Gomes’ arrogance and refusal to answer questions it regards as relevant to the campaign.

A typical headline in recent days was “The Ciro Gomes Risk”. The press has also been digging up Gomes’ past as a scion of a well-entrenched dynasty in Ceará state, who entered politics through a small party which supported the military dictatorship during their two decades it ruled Brazil until the mid-80s. He has been compared to disgraced former President Fernando Collor, who resigned on the eve of impeachment, and the maverick Jânio Quadros who resigned suddenly in August 1961 after less than seven months in office without any rational explanation.

Gomes’ recent suggestion that public debt repayments could be extended has worried many people outside and inside Brazil. While Gomes is not responsible for foreign investors’ unfounded and panicky lack of faith in Brazil, half-baked comments like this by a serious presidential candidate do not help.

In comparison, the PT has tried to show the world that it has reformed and will be a good boy. One of its leaders, House representative José Dirceu went to Wall Street mid-July to show American investors that the PT was not the radical outfit they feared. His visit followed a similar trip by the party’s moderate economic adviser, Guido Mantega. The PT published a lengthy manifesto which toned down much of the previous radical rhetoric.

Many of the ideas have been criticized by economists but we are starting to see less fear within Brazil as a Lula victory becomes more possible. Brazilians, unlike fearful foreigners, know that, like Cardoso, “President” Lula will have to negotiate with Congress as the PT is not strong enough to govern on its own. Just as Cardoso has failed to get through some of his reforms, particularly on tax, after almost eight years, Lula will also have to accept that there is no way he will ram through his reforms without compromising with the other parties.

Let us end by returning to the SIVAM project. There are encouraging signs that Brazil does not need a costly system like SIVAM and that higher powers in the shape of the Virgin Mary are taking an interest in offering her protection. Brazil is the biggest Roman Catholic country in the world and Brazilians have a strong affinity with the Virgin Mary or Nossa Senhora (Our Lady) as she is called here.

There are many Nossas Senhoras from different places and, as the singer Roberto Carlos says in one of his songs, “Todas as Nossas Senhoras são a mesma Mãe de Deus” (“All Our Ladies are the same Mother of God”). A series of images to conventional impressions of Our Lady have started appearing on window panes around São Paulo. While some think the images are just stains and reflections, to many people they portray the Virgin Mary.

Around 140,000 people have visited one location, including a Roman Catholic bishop. So far Serra, a native of São Paulo, is not known to have visited the site but who knows where he will turn next to resurrect his flagging campaign.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

This article was originally published by E-zine Infobrazil - www.infobrazil.com

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