Pesky Mosquitoes

Why has presidential candidate Ciro Gomes suddenly
rocketed so high in the polls and will we really see a
Lula-Gomes clash, with José Serra, the government
candidate, on the sidelines?

John Fitzpatrick

Most of the articles which journalists write are as transient as the lifespan of the mayfly and of less importance. This is well summed up in the saying that “today’s news is tomorrow’s fish and chip paper”, a reference to the unhygienic British habit of wrapping fish and chips in old newspapers. Nothing fits more into this category than tracking opinion polls. Candidates and the statistically-minded are hypnotized by opinion polls but to your correspondent these polls are like troublesome mosquitoes which appear from nowhere and whine around your ears irritatingly, demanding attention. Unfortunately you cannot ignore them.

The latest “mosquito” is Ciro Gomes, the presidential candidate of the small leftist PPS (Partido Popular Socialista—Popular Socialist Party), who has seen his ratings soar to 18 percent in recent opinion polls. He has even bumped the government candidate, José Serra, into third place in the latest polls although the difference is so small that technically they have the same rating. However, this was obviously a setback for Serra and a triumph for Gomes. His smug smirk now appears on the covers of weekly newsmagazines and daily newspapers and he has recently published a book which is really just a collection of speeches.

Gomes has been the official PPS candidate for several years and this has given him quite a lot of publicity and time to build up his campaign. His chief claim to fame is that he was briefly finance minister after Fernando Henrique Cardoso stood down to campaign for his first presidential mandate in 1994. Gomes was also governor of the small Northeastern state of Ceará.

He broke ranks with the Cardoso side in the middle of the President’s first mandate and criticized his economic policies although in a wishy-washy way, which was difficult to define and meant nothing to the man in the street. This so-called break with Cardoso’s policies has not stopped him from claiming credit for the successful Plano Real which halted Brazil’s endemic hyperinflation in Cardoso’s first term.

Recently, however, Gomes has started making waves by suggesting that, if he were elected, he would propose extending repayments of domestic public debt if creditors were prepared to accept higher interest rates. It is still not clear whether the general public is paying the slightest attention to this hypothetical matter. However, Gomes has given his opponents plenty of ammunition to use against him.

Serra says it would be equivalent to a default and would only worsen Brazil’s image abroad. Serra’s PSDB site seized on it and gave some examples of how it would work out in practice. “What would you say if your boss wanted to ‘extend’ your 13th salary (employers are required by law to pay an end-of-year bonus equivalent to a monthly salary)? What would the owner of a restaurant say if, as you were leaving, you asked to ‘extend’ paying the bill?”

The PT candidate, Lula, who is still well ahead in the polls and the PSB candidate, Garotinho, have also dismissed Gomes’s plan, as have several independent economic commentators. As for Lula, he was sounding positively statesmanlike this week and, in a television interview, said: “The PT has evolved and understands that the contracts Brazil has signed with other countries need to be complied with.”

Why has Gomes suddenly rocketed so high in the polls and will we really see a Lula-Gomes clash, with Serra on the sidelines? First of all, he has had a lot of television exposure of late and, as we have stated in previous articles, television is extremely important among lower social classes, who often cannot afford to buy a daily newspaper and rely on TV for their information.

Secondly, Gomes has a romantic relationship with a well-known television actress who is fighting a battle against cancer and has lost her hair. She is often at Gomes’ side and brings extra publicity. We are not remotely suggesting that Gomes is exploiting this personal tragedy but it probably touches an emotional chord among many people. Thirdly, Gomes is young and quite good looking, unlike Lula or Serra.

Surely these factors are not enough to make a presidential candidate? Normally this would be so, but let us not forget another young northeasterner called Fernando Collor, who became president against the odds in a contest against Lula in 1989. For the moment, Lula can safely ignore Gomes, but Serra cannot. If Serra does not improve his ratings then Gomes could be a suitable alternative for those anti-PT voters who do not like the other alternative, the populist Garotinho.

Official television campaigning starts in August and we will see if Serra manages to exploit it to get into top gear. With the support of Cardoso and his impressive ministerial track record Serra has everything in his favor. It is now up to him to shake up the electorate with a vision of what his government will do for Brazil. If he does not, then the mosquito Gomes will come whizzing in to destroy his peace.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

This article was originally published by E-zine Infobrazil - www.infobrazil.com

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